Will Ocean Freight Rates Drop in 2026? Insights from BIMCO

The international shipping industry is buzzing with predictions of a significant drop in ocean freight rates by 2026.

Based on a study by BIMCO (Baltic and International Maritime Council), we explore the factors shaping this outlook, including overcapacity concerns and geopolitical challenges.

BIMCO’s Prediction of Rate Decline

BIMCO anticipates a sharp decline in ocean freight rates by 2026.

While container supply rose by 12% in 2024, demand surged by 18–19%, surpassing supply.

However, this balance is expected to shift from 2025 onward, leading to potential rate drops.

The Impact of the Suez Canal Crisis

The ongoing Suez Canal bottleneck has disrupted global shipping routes.

Ships rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope have strained the supply chain, influencing freight demand.

If unresolved, this issue could further impact supply and demand in 2025 and beyond.

Geopolitical and Religious Conflicts

Political and religious tensions in the Middle East add to the uncertainty.

Attacks by armed groups and route disruptions have affected freight stability, with no clear resolution in sight.

This instability may prolong freight rate volatility.

Overcapacity: A Growing Concern

With over 8 million TEU of new ship orders in the pipeline, overcapacity is looming large by 2026.

While this suggests a supply glut, shipping companies might opt to reduce operations, controlling supply to mitigate the impact on rates.

Conclusion

The future of ocean freight rates remains uncertain, influenced by complex factors.

While BIMCO’s predictions highlight potential risks, businesses should stay informed and prepared for unexpected changes.